May 16, 2023 — My grandmother used to say, "Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it."* But nowadays, we are actually trying to do something about it, so keeping close tabs on weather trends is an important business today. The global weather results are in for 2022, and we were not imagining it — the weather really was awful. A number of news services covered the twin reports by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations climate agency's State of Global Climate 2022 (Nasty, deadly, costly and hot: UN weather service gives verdict on 2022 (yahoo.com)).
Here's the lead from Yahoo: "Looking back at 2022's weather with months of analysis, the World Meteorological Organization said last year really was as bad as it seemed when people were muddling through it. And about as bad as it gets — until more warming kicks in."
We had killer floods, droughts, heat waves, melting glaciers, disappearing sea ice, and sea levels rising twice as fast as just a few years ago — well, basically everything except lions, tigers, and bears.** But we have already survived the stuff in the rearview mirror. The serious point for risk is this: "Unfortunately, these negative trends in weather patterns and all of these parameters may continue until the 2060s" despite efforts to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases because of the pollution already spewed, according to WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
If risk management were only about the past, it would be much easier. We call your attention to this report*** as a reminder that your recent climate-related risk assumptions may be as evanescent as the snows of yesteryear.**** Our Journal has covered many specific aspects of climate risk challenges over the years, so this new report is more a reminder (none of these threats is going away) and an indicator of the breadth of the challenges facing us. It's probably fair to say that every state in the US and every country you do business in has growing climate-related challenges of its own, from increasing flooding to imminent chances of famine.
In insurance and risk management, we are long accustomed to looking back, poring over analytic reports of the last five years, spotting industry trends, and all that. But let this report remind you of one salient fact: You can't just connect the usual dots looking forward. Finding the dots for the future requires broad reading, deep thinking, and unfettered imagination, not just more spreadsheets. Understanding the dots of the future will be the difference between success and failure.
*This sentiment was long attributed to Mark Twain, but apparently, it was coined by another popular writer of the period, Charles Dudley Warner.
**Bears too. According to wildlife experts, it is because of climate change that we see polar bears mating with grizzly bears to give us — we are not making this up — pizzly bears.
***One of many, all pointing in the same direction.
****If this makes you think of Francois Villon's great refrain, "Mais ou sont les neiges d'antan?" go to the head of the class.
Author
Dr. Gary Anderberg
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